retail investing - bush league investing

The market is currently frustrating both bulls and bears as we sit on a major resistance level that both sides are convinced we are about to break out from. I don’t really have a directional view in the near term, but am watching this level intently as it should be a violent move either way.

There are enough people pushing doom and gloom, so I don’t feel like I need to go into the negative case for a downturn. On the positive side, one of the more interesting arguments is a seasonal one. The market historically follows a few patterns one of which is that the 4th quarter is normally positive and usually the most positive. August and September are historically rough and October is known as the bear killer. I have seen a few “Uptober” posts already. We will have to see how this plays out, but it should be a big jump in either direction from here.

Follow the portfolio to see our reaction to how this directionally important crossroads unfolds.

Uranium has had a great run in the last two years. If you have been following the portfolio, you have seen it become a larger and larger percent of the holdings. I sold 1/3 of the position this past month because the move was a bit too extended. I thought this would be a good a chance to offer my two cents on uranium and explain how I trade around long-term positions in the portfolio.

I started building a position in February 2021 and it has been a great climb since. I use the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust to participate in moves in uranium. So far we are up around 140% on the position.

I use macro ideas to get into positions but then I use some technical analysis to tell me if I should add or trim. I sold mid month because the move was very quick and the price was reaching the top of the channel I was watching.

When positions become too stretched, I like to take some out, usually 30%. My intention is never to time anything perfectly but adding during weakness and trimming into strength has served me well if the reasons I started the positions are still valid.

Uranium continues to be one of my highest conviction positions going forward. I am expecting a 15-20% correction and then another big move up over the next 12-18 months. I have laid out my thesis multiple times and it seems to only be improving. Click here to read what I previously said about uranium.

Thanks for reading. Track the portfolio monthly.